The year 2013 is coming to an end, time for us to look back and fact-check the predictions we and others made for what was an amazing year in business and technology.
Always a treasure trove of information and opinions, we invite you to look at last years Deloitte’s “Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2013” .
It was surprisingly accurate in its predictions, on many key points, but somewhat overly optimistic on others.
Trends of 2013 that exceeded expectations:
“crowdfunding portals bring in the bucks”
Oh yes they did! Thousands of creative, fun, and plain useful projects reached, and exceeded their funding goals with the help of platforms like Kickstarter.com and are now making their way to consumers world wide.
“4K kicks off”
Deloitte was spot on: Like clock-work, electronic giants like LG, Samsung and others are churning out new Displays and TV sets every year, just in time for the holidays. What they, and frankly us too, underestimated though was the price point at which these new sets will hit the shelves:
“The commercial range of 4K TV sets should grow from a handful in 2012 to about 20 models by end-201399. At least half of these sets may be available for under $10,000”
All a consumer needs for a 50″ 4K TV is $829, shipping included.
Trends we over-estimated
“All you can App”
“Deloitte predicts that in 2013 between 50 and 100 mobile operators will offer all-you-can-eat services with unlimited access to specific applications. All-you-can-app (AYCA) will, for a fixed monthly subscription, offer unrestricted use of each service’s content, with connectivity charges bundled in.”
While several operators (Deutsche Telekom and others) have embraced the model and created related offerings (e.g. unlimited use of Spotify), many consumers have raised criticism of the idea of applying different charges to different kinds of data traffic. “Net Neutrality” movements have emerged up in several western countries and are raising awareness of the downsides of AYAC, and similar, models for the consumers. It remains to be seen if and how consumers and regulators ultimately react.
“Dual video screening readies for prime time”
“Deloitte predicts that during major sports events for which multiple streams are available, up to ten percent of households will be using multiple screens in the same room in 2013.”
Watching a soccer game from two or more angles at the same time would be great, but just hasn’t arrived in mainstream households yet. The issue is not that the technology wouldn’t exist – its that broadcasters and more often than not, the owners of the broadcasting rights, are slow to adopt new models of content distribution and consumption. But we are getting there. At least the upcoming 2014 Olympic Winter Games in Sochi will the first to be broadcast in 3D.
Now, what are your predictions for 2014?
Read the full list of “Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2013” here.